We finally finish things off this series with the surprise division of 2007, the one that produced two playoff teams and the eventual NL champion. A couple of major moves and a lot of player signings and extensions highlight this division’s offseason.
Arizona Diamondbacks
12-14-2007: Acquired RHP Dan Haren and RHP Connor Robertson from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for LHP Brett Anderson, LHP Dana Eveland, LHP Greg Smith, INF Chris Carter, OF Aaron Cunningham, and OF Carlos Gonzalez; Acquired RHP Chad Qualls, RHP Juan Gutierrez, and OF Chris Burke in exchange for RHP Jose Valverde.
This one day pretty much sums up the major transactions during this offseason for the D’Backs. Beyond a one-year salary here or the club picking up the option there, this one day reflects the new face their team.
We’ve already examined the quality of prospects the D’backs gave up in this deal and what it did for the Oakland farm system, but how good a pitcher did they get in return? At age 26/27 last year, Haren took a sizable step up in performance, something you might expect from a pitcher of his age that has plus pitches. In fact, Haren posted career bests in all of the following numbers last season: wins, ERA, Ks, ERA+, K/9, BAA, LOB%, PRAA, VORP, Win Shares and WARP. All these while posting a BABIP that is almost exactly the average for pitchers.
Like I mentioned with Johan Santana, I want to look at Haren and Santana and their new NL context in an article hopefully before the season starts, but here are Haren’s number against the NL during interleague in his career:
7-2, 2.93 ERA, 61 Ks, and a line against of .219/.285/.362 in 12 games and 83 innings. Not too bad.
In the Valverde deal, the D’Backs received two players that will be on their opening day rosters. One is Chris Burke, the former Astros’ uber-prospect. Why he didn’t exactly work out as planned is still somewhat a mystery, but it probably has to do with a number of factors such as inconsistent playing time, having to learn three different positions when they were not benching Biggio, and never being able to consistently take a walk and get on base (something the Astros needed in their one and two hitters). Burke for his career has a 0.41 BB/K ratio in 1155 PA.
Qualls is currently slated to pitch the 8th inning with Brandon Lyon being named the closer. A careful look at Qualls’ numbers over his career show some interesting details that perhaps Arizona should consider. Qualls’ numbers against him over 521 career 8th inning plate appearances are an average .281/.344/.400 with a 112 OPS+ against. In the 9th inning, over 126 PAs, Qualls’ number show .189/.274/.297 with a 63 OPS+ against. What do these numbers really tell us? Not much. But if you are like me and believe that the more innings a pitcher throws, the larger the sample size becomes, the more he begins to show his “true self” and what type of pitcher he is. After four years, we have a pretty good idea of what kind of 8th inning pitcher Qualls is. Conversely, these are Lyon’s numbers in the 8th and 9th innings over his career:
8th - .251/.297/.405 with 78 OPS+ over 483 PA
9th - .293/.338/.457 with 102 OPS+ over 328 PA
So maybe there should at least be some consideration given to those two switching roles. Or better yet, you could actually use your best reliever whenever the score calls for it in the late innings, not just the ninth? Oh, who am I kidding…
Colorado Rockies
11-29-2007: Re-signed C Yorvit Torrealba to a two-year contract with a mutual option for 2010.
This deal, worth $7.25m was to keep their starting catcher in the fold for perhaps the next three years. The Rockies already have a potent offense batting in front of him, so his bat is not crucial to their success, but Torrealba is the very definition of average when it comes to catchers. Below is a comparison of the 2007 averages for MLB catchers compared to Torrealba’s 2007 numbers:
2007 catchers Stat 2007 Torrealba
.255 AVG .255
.321 OBP .323
.393 SLG .376
.244 EqA .235
But compared to catchers like Brian Schneider and Jason Kendall, he is a steal.
1-18-2008: Signed OF Matt Holliday to a two-year contract.
There is not much you can say about Matt Holliday negatively when it comes to his past two offensive seasons. He is simply a masher - and everything, his Avg, OBP, SLG, VORP, RC, everything - was in the top ten in the NL in 2007. Like I said, it’s hard to find something to criticize, but that’s why I am here. Please don’t misunderstand, Holliday is an amazing player, and at 28, should continue to be an amazing player for years. But, there are some numbers that could predict a little bit of a dropoff for Holliday in the near future.
In 2006, Holliday was fourth in the NL with a .351 BABIP, a very high number - one that could lead the league some years. He also had a HR/FB ratio of 18.2% placing him in the top 15 in the NL in that category also. So, one would expect in 2007 that those numbers would reduce and even out some to the norm. Well, that’s not what happened. In 2007, Holliday raised his BABIP to .377 (best in the NL) and his HR/FB rate, even though it dropped a little to 17.9%, put him sixth in the NL for that number. Even though Coors Field tempers these numbers a little bit and does strange things with them, the increase or plateau he now sees in those categories can certainly not continue forever. Combine these numbers with the fact that he has also been in the top 25 for GB% in the NL two years running, and you could see a slight decrease in production (FB and GB both have rates of turning them into outs of over 70%).
1-23-2008: Signed SS Troy Tulowitzki to a six-year contract.
The defining move of the Rockies’ offseason, and in my opinion, one of the best signings in years relative to what a team had to pay for the actual value of a player. Tulowitzki, who is 23 this year, signed a six-year deal worth $31m - but one that is EXTREMELY backloaded. Troy will not make more than a million bucks a season until 2010.
Averaging $5m a year for a SS who was top-five in the NL in 2007 in HR, RBI, Avg, OBP, SLG, RC, RC/27, VORP, WPA, and Win Shares is downright amazing. Plus, he will only be 29 at the end of this deal. 29!
In all of this, we haven’t even talked about the defense yet. Tulowitzki was the best shortstop in the National League last year - as shown by his winning John Dewan’s Fielding Bible award for 2007 with an amazing +35, 20 more than any other NL SS. Last year, Tulo was number four in the NL with an RZR of .861, which is impressive enough, but he also led in NL in reaching balls out of his zone with 87. Your other great offensive shortstops in the NL (Reyes, Rollins and Ramirez), averaged 56 last year.
2-11-2008: Signed INF Garrett Atkins to a one-year, $4.3875 million contract, avoiding arbitration.
Although Atkins is not near the defensive player Tulo has become (only .613 RZR, -29 in the Fielding Bible, and -17 RAA for Atkins), this is still a relative steal when comparing Atkins to other NL third basemen. In fact, you can realistically make the argument that only David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, and Ryan Braun were better offensive NL 3B last season (with perhaps Aramis Ramirez in the argument, too). With Braun now in the OF, Jones another year older and Cabrera switching leagues, this 28-year-old has a shot to be a top-3 3B in his league this year. And the other five players I just mentioned average over $8m in salary this year, and that includes Braun who will make less than a million in 2008.
Los Angeles Dodgers
12-12-2007: Signed free agent CF Andruw Jones to a two-year contract.
Besides signing a new manager and a slew of new coaches, this was the one LA move of any note this offseason. I wondered quite a while back what would actually happen with Jones after this uncharacteristically bad 2007. The power went away, any on-base ability went away, and a number of other factors culminated in his poor showing in 2007. As I suspected, one of the key things I examined in that post turned out to hold true all year long. Jones’ FB% was the highest of his career - 43.9%, a sure sign he was trying to homer his way into a big contract. But all that hacking didn’t pay off as his HR/FB ratio of 13.4% was by far the lowest of his career. So a greater number of fly balls with less of them going for homers means a whole lot of outs compared to his numbers in the past.
On the other hand, his defense is still stellar. He was a close second in the Fielding Bible awards this year, with a +24, but still leads all CF over the past three years by a wide margin (Jones is at +63, while the next closest is +46). Also, his .921 RZR was first among CF in the NL, and second among all OF to only Eric Byrnes (.923).
So a two-year $36m deal ($12m of which is signing bonus), isn’t quite what he hoped for, especially seeing what Torii Hunter received, but he will take it and do this whole song and dance again in a couple of years.
San Diego Padres
12-12-2007: Signed RHP Jake Peavy to a five-year contract with a club option for 2013.
Not only the 2007 Cy Young, but also the NL pitching triple crown winner (ERA, Ks, Wins). Only 26 on opening day this year, Peavy already has three seasons of at least 13 wins with an ERA under 2.90 in his career. That may not sound too impressive, but Peavy is the first person to have three such years by age 26 since Jose Rijo in 1988-1991. Throw in three seasons where he also had at least 215 strikeouts and you are looking at the NL’s most dominant pitcher until someone else proves otherwise.
His 2007 was so dominant, in fact, that he led the NL in wins, ERA, strikeouts, WHIP, VORP, and WPA. He was second in LOB% with an amazing 78.3% and only four qualifying pitchers gave up fewer homeruns than Peavy.
The first two years of his deal are worth $14.5 m, while the last three are worth $52m - but for a pitcher who will only be 31 when the contract is up, this was a must-do for the Friars.
12-15-2007: Acquired OF Jim Edmonds and cash from the Cardinals in exchange for minor league 3B David Freese.
Every relevant offensive statistic that you can think of has declined four years in a row for Edmonds, who is thought to be the Padres’ new CF. We’re talking cumulative numbers, rate stats, ratios, anything. But most importantly, his games played has decreased every year. Now almost 38, his years of flying around the outfield have caught up with him - so much so that his fabled defense in CF has failed him for years. Two years running, Edmonds has been negative in the Runs Above Average category used to measure defensive proficiency. Edmonds also ranked in the bottom five in the Fielding Bible awards in 2007, again measuring a negative value.
12-26-2007: Signed RHP Mark Prior to a one-year contract.
From the Associated Press:
“Mark Prior didn’t experience any pain in his surgically repaired right shoulder during his first spring training workout with the San Diego Padres”
Just wait, Padres. Just wait.
2-12-2008: Signed INF Khalil Greene to a two-year contract.
Greene’s offensive numbers the past three seasons:
2005 56 RC 95 OPS+
2006 54 RC 97 OPS+
2007 83 RC 100 OPS+
Greene’s defensive rankings among NL SS the past three seasons:
2005 - 14th in RZR - 16th in OOZ
2006 - 7th in RZR - 14th in OOZ
2007 - 5th in RZR - 5th in OOZ
Did Greene just dramatically improve offensively and defensively over the course of one season? Time will tell and we will need this season and more to judge how he fares in both, but Greene is clearly beginning to develop on both sides. He has been in the top ten in the Fielding Bible Awards for two years in a row and his SLG percentage was his highest ever, although at the expense of the lowest OBP, LD% and highest FB% of his career.
San Francisco Giants
12-1-2007: Declined to offer arbitration to OF Barry Bonds
And now spring training has started and he is still waiting. That Hall class of 2012 with him, Clemens, Biggio, Sosa, et al is going to be very interesting to watch.
12-12-2007: Signed OF Aaron Rowand to a five-year contract.
This is the Giants’ projected lineup for this season:
Dave Roberts LF
Kevin Frandsen 3B
Randy Winn RF
Bengie Molina C
Aaron Rowand CF
Ray Durham 2B
Dan Ortmeier 1B
Omar Vizquel SS
Last year, Rowand earned 23 Win Shares by himself. The other seven giants in the lineup earned 67. Rowand earned more than a third of the total of the rest of the batters just by himself.
Also last season, Roward accumulated 98 RC by himself; the rest of the lineup - 419. Again, Rowand by himself with more than 20% of the total of the rest of the lineup. So can Rowand come in and almost single-handedly bring the Giants’ offense to a level of at least mediocrity? In 2007, the Giants had the following ranks in each of these categories:
OBP 27th
AVG 27th
Runs 29th
SLG 30th
OPS 30th
Total bases 30th
The answer is, probably not. You see, the Giants achieved these figures with Mr. Bonds. His totals in the Win Shares and Runs Created departments were 21 and 92, respectively, compared to 23 and 98 for Rowand. So has the offense improved? Probably not. Has the defense improved? Most definitely with Bonds gone and Rowand in center. Has the pitching improved? The Giants sure hope Lincecum and Cain take a step forward and Zito improves, but it looks to be a long season by the bay in 2008.
So there you have it. While admittedly leaving out some analysis of some of the deals that took place after I wrote up the division (namely the Bedard deal), these are the major and not-so-major moves for the 2008 season.
I will get back into more of the stats stuff with my next post.
