I promise this will not be as long as the NL Central post from a few days ago. But then again, the NL East has made some pretty significant moves this offseason, so maybe I will retract that. Let’s jump right in,
Atlanta Braves
11-16-2007: Acquired OF Josh Anderson from the Houston Astros in exchange for RHP Oscar Villarreal.
The Braves were faced with quite a challenge when Andruw Jones left for the Dodgers. How do you replace a perennial Gold Glover and a huge bat (at least in 2005 and 2006) in center field? Well rookie Anderson will be fighting another offseason pickup for that CF spot, but he certainly won’t be contending for any Gold Gloves or slugging titles - Anderson had a lower SLG than OBP last season, although his line was an impressive .358/.413/.403 in his first 67 major league at bats.
11-19-2007: Signed LHP Tom Glavine to a one year contract for the 2008 season.
Likely his last year, 42-year-old Glavine returns for one more go around with the club with whom he had so much success. Here is an interesting stat about Glavine: he shows up in the Cy Young voting 6 times between 1991 and 2000, winning it twice. But in the years he shows in the voting, he has never been lower than third place.
Glavine joins a rotation that now consists of John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Chuck James, and Mike Hampton if he stays healthy. And while Atlanta still has a competent lineup including Teixeira, Chipper, Francouer, and McCann, I can’t help but wonder if Glavine wishes he was still part of the Mets’ rotation now that they are favored in the National League.
1-14-2008: Acquired OF Mark Kotsay from the A’s in exchange for RHP Joey Devine, RHP Jamie Richmond, and cash considerations
The other candidate for the CF spot in Hot-lanta. Diaz and Francouer have the other spots sewed up, so whomever does not start out of Anderson and Kotsay, the other becomes the primary backup at all three positions.
Kotsay never had an OBP over .332 in his last three years in Oakland, so that was definitely not going to cut it there. The interesting thing, though, about Kotsay is that while his Avg., OBP, SLG, BB%, BABIP, and RC/27 have all been at or below league average over the past two years, his K% remains as great as ever. Kotsay almost never strikes out, and he has never had a K rate that was worse than league average. In 2004, when Kotsay had a career high 673 PAs, he only struck out 70 times, for a K% of 11.8%. In perspective, only seven players in 2004 had at least 670 PAs and 70 or less strikeouts that season. Maybe that’s why the A’s loved him.
1-24-2008: Signed RHP Rafael Soriano to a two-year contract.
The new closer of the Braves signs on after a stellar 71 games in 2007 where he saved nine in limited ninth-inning duties, but posted an ERA of 3.00, a WHIP of 0.861, and an ERA+ of 142. His career K/9 has been pretty good, his career BB/9 is great - but watch out for his BABIP numbers this year. In 2007 Soriano’s was .208, about 90 points below the average for pitchers.
Florida Marlins
12-5-2007: Acquired RHP Burke Badenhop, RHP Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP Dallas Trahern. LHP Andrew Miller, and OF Cameron Maybin from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for LHP Dontrelle Willis and 3B Miguel Cabrera.
One of the two biggest moves of the MLB offseason, and the one major move by the Marlins unless you consider signing Dallas McPherson or Luis Gonzalez major moves.
Once again I will go back to Baseball Prospectus’ Future Shock series to look at the prosepects now residing in the Marlins’ farm system. After this trade - getting rid of two stars they would not have been able to afford anyway - Maybin and De La Cruz wind up 1st and 10th, respectively in Florida’s system, with Trahern just missing the cut. Scouts call Maybin the next best hope we have of seeing a true five-tool player. His cumulative minor league line reads .316/.409/.523 with 14 HR and 25 SB in just 91 games.
The other gem of this trade, although no longer a prospect, is pitcher Andrew Miller. Miller, a 23-year-old with devastating stuff has drawn Randy Johnson comparisons as a tall, lanky, LHP with dominating pitches. Evidence of this can be seen in the famous game he pitched in July 2007 against the Red Sox. In winning that game, Miller pitched seven innings, gave up only three hits and struck out six as a 22-year-old rookie.
Both Maybin and Miller will be immediate fixtures in the Marlins’ lineup - for about $2m combined.
New York Mets
11-19-2007: Re-signed 2B Luis Castillo to a four-year contract.
To be honest, I just don’t know what to think about this contract. I mean, the only other 2B on the Mets’ roster is Ruben Gotay, so I guess they had to have somebody, I just slightly question four years for Castillo. Since 1999, Castillo has been an offensive player who always gets on base (.368 career OBP), scores runs (never less than 72 since 1999), steals bases (325 careers SB), and who has always worked on not striking out (21.6% K rate in 1998 to 8.2% in 2007). And on the defensive side, Castillo ranked in the top ten for all MLB 2B in John Dewan’s Fielding Bible plus/minus rankings from 2004-2006. So he is doing his two jobs correctly.
It’s just that he is 32 now, and the offensive numbers he is known for like OBP, BB%, and LD% have all been in slight decline the past three years.
11-20-2007: Acquired C Johnny Estrada from the Brewers in exchange for RHP Guillermo Mota.
And then didn’t offer him a contract, making him a free agent. He will pop up again soon.
11-30-2007: Acquired OF Ryan Church and C Brian Schneider from the Washington Nationals in exchange for OF Lastings Milledge.
In this deal, the Mets get two starters for their 2008 squad and the Nats get a former uber-prospect that didn’t turn out to be quite what the Mets hoped for. More on that later.
For the Mets, Church and Schneider will replace Shawn Green and Paul Lo Duca. Church and Schneider’s combined RC/27 last year was 9.3, while the combined number for Green and Lo Duca was 9.2. So we can call it a wash on offense. They will be hitting 7 and 8 anyway.
2-2-2008: Acquired LHP Johan Santana from the Twins in exchange for OF Carlos Gomez, RHP Deolis Guerra, RHP Philip Humber, and RHP Kevin Mulvey.
Everyone now understands two things about this trade from all the attention it has gotten the past 10 days: 1. that the Mets got some sort of a steal of a deal, especially in that they got to keep their number one rated prospect, and 2. Santana is the best pitcher alive. So there is no need for me to focus on either of those things.
Let’s try to put Santana in the NL context. The simple way to do it is to look at how Santana has fared against the NL in his career. Well, it isn’t pretty for the rest of the Senior Circuit. Santana has started 24 games against the NL and is 16-4 with a 2.27 ERA and 191 Ks in 182.2 innings. Wow.
In the next few days, I plan to do some more in depth research actually trying to place Santana in real life NL situations. For example, since Santana has now replaced Tom Glavine in the rotation, what would have happened if Santana had pitched Glavine’s starts in 2007? Stay tuned…
Philadelphia Phillies
11-7-2007: Acquired RHP Brad Lidge and INF Eric Bruntlett from the Astros in exchange for OF Michael Bourn, nonroster 3B Michael Costanzo, and RHP Geoff Geary.
For the past four seasons, these are Brad Lidge’s ranks for K/9 among all MLB pitchers with at least 50 IP for the season:
2004 - 1st
2005 - 1st
2006 - 2nd
2007 - 6th
There are two ways to look at those numbers. One is to say that he has obviously been declining in his strikeout numbers; Lidge’s most potent weapon, for the past few years, maybe as a result of fatigue, maybe recurring psychological factors from the Pujols homerun, etc. Or, you can say, even with his K/9 rate at its lowest in four years, it was still 11.82 K/9 for the season. I am sure the Phillies are basing the trade on the latter. The only thing that seems to have changed for Lidge the past two seasons since that homerun is his BB/9 numbers, which have been in the 4.03-4.32 range instead of the 2.85 and 2.93 it was in ‘04 and ‘05. This actually may be a factor of the homerun, not wanting to put balls in the middle of the plate in the tight 8th- and 9th-inning pressure situations. Prediction: he will do no worse than Brett Myers did as the Phillies closer in 2007.
11-10-2007: Signed LHP J.C. Romero to a three-year extension, with a club option for a fourth year.
I didn’t know we had reached the point where LOOGY’s are getting three and four year guaranteed contracts; especially worth $12m and potentially $16m overall.
We will have to wait to pass judgment until we see which version of Romero the Phillies are going to get. He is always dominant against left-handers, posting a .202/.298/.303 line against them in 2006 and a .208/.333/.312 line in 2007. But against right-handers he is more of a mystery. In 2007, he was an outstanding .198/.350/.328 against them, but in 2006 - .382/.455/.578 against right-handed batters.
1-31-2008: Signed 3B Pedro Feliz to a two-year contract with a club option for 2010.
Possibly three seasons for a third baseman with a career .288 OBP. In perspective, Adam Everett has a career OBP of .299.
Washington Nationals
11-30-2007: Acquired OF Lastings Milledge from Mets in exchange for OF Ryan Church and C Brian Schneider.
Maybe only 19 minor league games was a little too fast for young Lastings. His minor league numbers of .342/.395/.575 screamed to get him to the show, but his demeanor and attitude once he was there shouted back that he might need some more seasoning and maturity. Well he is the Nats’ problem now, and he immediately becomes the team’s projected CF on opening day. Numbers like .272/.341/.446 in your first 59 MLB games is not horrible by any means - but a talent like him being traded so quickly is surely a red flag.
12-11-2007: Signed C Paul Lo Duca to a one year contract.
So the Mets and Nats wind up switching starting catchers, just not through a trade. I wonder how many times that has happened throughout history? This would be a steal if we were about to start spring training in 2001. Now, Lo Duca is just old.
1-31-2008: Signed C Johnny Estrada to a one-year contract.
“….wait, didn’t we just sign another catcher the Mets let go? Well, can we train one of them to play shortstop? They both hit better than Christian Guzman…”
One more post to go with this series. The goal is to have it up by the time pitchers and catchers start their workouts.
