I can’t tell you how much talk oxygen is wasted in this town talking about Adam Everett. People just can’t make up their mind whether they love him or hate him, whether he should be here or on his way out. On a team where the biggest struggle this season has been offense, someone who just last week got their average above .210 is normally vilified and persecuted to no end.
So it’s time to put this discussion to an end. I listen to a couple of sports talk shows every day on my home from work, and one host routinely laments that Adam Everett is a “net loss” when it comes to his overall body of work; that there is no way Everett’s outstanding glove can make up for his weak bat.
Really? Well, that is what I aim to find out.
First, the easy part. Let’s see how bad Everett is offensively. Through June 8, citing The Hardball Times, Everett has created 21 runs so far in the 2007 season (22nd amongst shortstops). His RC/27 is a horridly low 3.7 (what a full team of Everetts would score per game).** At this pace, Everett would have 57 Runs Created by the end of the season. To compare, in 2006, here are some final shortstop RC numbers:
Derek Jeter - 138
Jose Reyes - 125
Miguel Tejada - 104
Orlando Cabrera - 82
Yuniesky Betancourt - 64
Jack Wilson - 59
Khalil Greene - 54
Adam Everett (20th amongst SS) - 52
Using these numbers, Everett’s Value Over Replacement Player is -6.0 (23rd lowest in the majors for 2007). That means that he has created six runs less for his team that a replacement player off the bench or from the minors would have created in the same amount of plate appearances. That puts his VORP per game (or VORPr) at -.120. So, if after 60 games, his VORP was -6, and if he keeps up a pace of -.120 per game for the season, after 102 games, his total VORP for 2007 would be -18.24. That’s 18 runs created less than some scrub on the bench; or, in other words, gawdawful. To put it in comparison, the worst player in terms of VORP in 2006 was Clint Barmes at -20.5. Brad Ausmus was almost as bad with -17.5, and Everett had -8.7.
So a -18.5 would put him as one of the worst, if not the worst hitter in the league - which, granted, is what he is.
Now we need to look at the defensive numbers. First, we will throw out all of the ones that don’t matter. Here are some of Everett’s basic defensive stats and his rank amongst all fielders in the NL:
Errors: 6
Fielding Percentage: .978 - 8th
Assists: 179 - 3rd
Double Plays Started: 13 - 13th
Double Plays Turned: 20 - 2nd
Innings: 478 - 9th
(Balls In Zone does not come out until the end of the season)
Why do I say these don’t matter? Because Everett can not control the circumstances that determine these stats: a scorer decides error or not, and thus fielding percentage; and he can not control if there is a man on first and if the batter hits a groundball, starting a DP, etc.
So we will use something that does matter. For the first time, Michael Lichtman (working with Tangotiger) has released his defensive Ultimate Zone Ratings in-season. These stats are widely regarded around baseball as the ultimate source in defensive runs saved because, on defensive plays and players, Lichtman takes into account what park the game is played in, pitcher’s GB/FB tendencies, the base/out situation, ball trajectory, and more. The spreadsheet for this year, released on May 31, can be found here.
Lichtman has Everett third in the majors so far, having saved nine runs through May 31. Nine runs saved through 53 games averages out to 18.5 more for the rest of the season for a total of 27.5 runs saved with his defense in 2007.
So, we now have the projected total value of Everett’s run contribution (-18.5) and his projected total in defensive runs saved (27.5). The difference here is a plus nine, not a net negative number.
But just because he has a net positive, does not automatically mean he belongs in the lineup. He must be compared to his peers to show true value. So, I have done the work for you. Below, in decreasing order, is the net value of all NL shortstops for 2007, using the same projections I used for Everett:
So with as bad as Everett has been, he still has a net run value higher than four shortstops just in the NL. Over the next couple of days, I will run this for the AL and see how many he bests in that league as well. And remember, these are just the starting shortstops; don’t even get me started on Ronny Cedeno, Wilson Valdez, or others.
If Everett were to have even a little bit of a turnaround and reach last year’s numbers of -8.7 VORP, he would pass Eckstein and would be in Khalil Greene territory.
Like has been said many times before, Everett is the perfect player for a team that already has a strong offense. The problem is, the Astros decidedly do not. So, Everett’s obvious individual shortcomings at the plate get magnified and his defense gets overlooked.
But, if you don’t want to take my word for it, that’s fine. Lisa Gray found an excerpt from Michael Lichtman responding to Adam Everett doubters. He essentially says the same thing I have found here, and he at least knows what he is talking about.
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**On the other hand, the Runs Created for Biggio, Ensberg and Lamb so far this year are 19, 17, and 9 respectively, but we’re not talking about them right now.
Ryan,
I like your train of thought here. I do have one problem. You have evaluated Everett against a Replacment player (which I don’t really like to begin with) for his hitting but not for his fielding. Yes he is a great fielder but what about that guy who replaces him. Would he be a zero sum defensive player or would he add value in the field as well? I am thinking of specifically Eric Bruntlett. He is in the minors right now and so he would be the “replacment player”. The problem is that Bruntlett does not exsist in a vaccum and work out to be the perfect statistical replacment player. He has his strenghts and weaknesses and would bring value in ways that Everett can’t and also take away some of the value that Everett brings to the team.
I think that in depth stats are great. I think that they have shed some much needed spotlights on areas of the game that were bareley understood. But when you turn players into numerical abstractions you forget that the game is player in the real world with real human beings, not collections of statistics.
Still loving the blog, keep it up.
Good point. It probably would be more beneficial to rate these SS on more equal fields. The UZR rankings can be seen as an average scale. You have some that are above zero in runs saved and some that are below zero (as in their defense has actually contributed to the opposing team scoring multiple runs). But the vast majority of the players are at zero, the average.
So, we can use a batting metric that is less-known, but still rates players against the average hitter (instead of replacement). Batting Runs Above Average (or BRAA) does this quite well. This stat shows the number of runs a player has contributed better than a player with a .260 EqA (THE average hitter). In Everett’s case, he has done worse than the average hitter, so it will be a negative number - an even lower negative number than with VORP because you are subtracting his production from average, not replacement. And this will be the same for all the SS on the list.
So, here are the same 16 SS with their BRAA numbers and net value comparing projected BRAA to UZR:
Reyes, 40.5, 59.19
Renteria, 47.8, 38.63
Hardy, 21.6, 33.6
Guzman, 32.75, 23.75
Ramirez, 50.46, 23.46
Rollins, 20.57, 20.57
Furcal, 0, 12.23
Greene, -11.27, 7.07
Tulowitzki, -10.83, 4.17
Everett, -26.95, 0.55
Eckstein, 3.04, -0.14
Gonzalez, 2.72, -0.23
Drew, -18.83, -12.93
Vizquel, -33.05, -17.47
Wilson, -18.75, -18.75
Izturis, -18.64, -28.17
So for this, we can say that Everett’s offense and his defense essentially cancel each other out, but that still puts him better than six other SS in the NL.
As far as Bruntlett goes, we don’t have any 2007 data since he has been in AAA all year, but according to the UZR rankings from 2003-2006, he has saved four runs by his defense. In that same time frame, his BRAA is at four also. So his offense/defense has been a wash over the past three years.
Over the same time frame (’03-’07), Everett has saved 113 runs with the glove and had BRAA of -72. Net total equals 41 runs.
I think this goes to show that if Everett improves with the bat AT ALL this year (which he has lately), he is definitely worth keeping in the starting lineup.
If you peak around TangoTiger’s website, you’ll find quite a few pieces showing that replacement-level hitters tend to be average fielders. The correct way of evaluating a player involves three factors:
-offensive runs above replacement
-defensive runs above average
-positional adjustment
Your VORP+UZR metric is pretty much how it should be done.