On March 25, the Southeast Invitational fantasy baseball draft was held for our Yahoo points league. The full results of the draft can be found by looking at the comments (I posted it there to not take space here). But I thought it might be interesting to look at all of the picks in hindsight and determine the best value pick for each team throughout the 20 rounds.
Obviously I am not going to pick Albert Pujols with the #1 selection as Tim’s, because that is appropriate value for that player. I am talking more like Regan’s selection of Justin Morneau in the 20th round in 2006. That is the paragon of value picks anytime you can get the MVP with your last pick. Of course, this is just as I see it now, and we can revisit this at the end of the season to see how many I hit on.
For many of these players I will use the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections which is a formula that takes certain factors into account such as age, injury risk, ballpark, similar players in history, ability, batting order, etc. in their predictions. Unfortunately, it is a subscriber-only service, so I can’t link to specific players, but I will give you the relevent information for each.
We’ll go in order of the draft, 1-10:
Tim - Dave Bush/Chris Capuano - Rounds 16/17
This tandem of Brewer pitchers taken back to back could prove to be well worth the round(s) they were taken. Baseball Prospectus predicts Milwaukee will win the NL Central and their rotation will be a big reason why if that should happen. Along with Ben Sheets and Jeff Suppan, the Brew Crew have the best pitching in the division that will be backed up by an improved offense that includes Prince Fielder, Bill Hall, Rickie Weeks, Johnny Estrada, Corey Hart and others. They are both projected to have double digit wins with ERAs around 4.00.
Dusty - Lyle Overbay - Round 19
I really wanted to put Alex Rios here whom Dusty got in round 12, I really did. But looking at the player, the projections, and where each was taken, it has to be Overbay. Rios is slotted to bat 6th for the Blue Jays while Overbay has been moved into the two hole. Now I don’t feel Rios’ staph infection will have any lingering effects, but Overbay’s extra at-bats this season may ramp up his already consistent production. BP projects him for a .291/.366/.476 line with 22 HR and 93 RBI. He will also score plenty of runs with Wells, Thomas and Glaus hitting behind him. Not a bad utlity player if I do say so myself.
Ryan - Howie Kendrick - Round 17
PECOTA is very high on this player and so am I. The 23-year-old second baseman has hit and hit well at every level he has played at in professional baseball, and he is hitting almost .400 this spring. His projections look like this: .305/.339/.487 with 17 HR, 75 RBI and 11 steals. When similar, older second-sackers with less upside were taken 8 to 10 rounds earlier, I was more than happy to take him where I did.
Jeremy - Magglio Ordonez - Round 17
I still don’t know how he got passed on for so long, but Magglio dropping this far is a steal. Some OF taken before him include Luke Scott, Chris Burke, Curtis Granderson, Jacque Jones and Gary Matthews, Jr. Ordonez is much more of a proven commodity than all of these guys. While the BP projections for him do not look good (16 HR, 75 RBI), I disagree with them. He is finally healthy, in the middle of a great lineup, and is only 33 years old. The projections factor in injury risk and therefore only have him playing 80% of the games, so if that improves, his stats will across the board as well.
Regan - Chad Cordero - Round 19
When you get to round 19 and you are looking for a closer, you expect to find David Weathers or Dan Miceli, not someone who has 76 saves and an ERA under 3 the past two years. Cordero strikes out just under a batter per inning and is projected to have 27 saves and an ERA of 3.33. The only thing from making this a truly great steal is the relatively few save chances the Nationals may present to Cordero seeing as how they might lose 100 games this year.
Robby - Rich Harden - Round 14
Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me. That’s what I felt this year after having getting burned by drafting Harden last year and having him pitch less than 10 games in 2006. I wanted him badly, but didn’t bite. There is probably no greater risk/reward pick in the entire draft. Harden’s numbers are so unbelievable when he is healthy that he was probably worth the risk higher than round 14 considering how good he has looked in spring training. His projections don’t look so hot, because they see the injury problems continuing, but he is still projected for a strikeout per inning and an ERA under 4. If he is healthy for almost a full season, I say that number drops below 3.60. Just looking at his numbers the past three years when he is healthy give you a good glimpse of his dominance. Compared to all other starting pitchers, his strikeout rate, homerun rate and Batting Average on Balls in Play are all above the 90th percentile in that timeframe. I actually hope he stays healthy because I would love to see what he can do over a whole season.
Kirk - Chad Tracy - Round 20
This is a guy often overlooked when it comes to conversation about third basemen. This year, he is at the magical age of 27, something that ALWAYS factors into PECOTA. As the number three hitter with two marginal guys hitting in front of him (Stephen Drew and Orlando Hudson), Tracy has a projected line of .289/.353/.500 with 25 homers and 89 RBI. Bump up those RBI numbers some if Drew and Hudson have above average years in OBP, and you have quite good value coming out of the 20th and final round.
Joel - Richie Sexson - Round 13
I saw some guys say after he was picked they were surprised how long he lasted. After a slow start last year, he really came on at the end with 34 homers and 107 RBI. The batting average is never something to be excited about, but with a more consistent year, he could put up similar numbers to last year. Projections say look for 31 homers and 96 RBI, and if Adrian Beltre and Jose Vidro do their jobs and get on base, look for more. Most importantly, they project Sexson to be healthy which is encouraging after shoulder problems in the past. After the 9th round, there were only two players taken who hit at least 34 homers in 2006; Giambi in the 11th and Sexson in the 13th. Not too shabby for a perennial 30-100 guy.
Jason - Hanley Ramirez - Round 10
Last year, as a rookie, Ramirez was the 6th rated shortstop behind only Reyes, Jeter, Rollins, Tejada and Young. This year, his projections look almost identical to his final numbers from last year - they foresee a .289/.350/.453 line with 15 HR and 48 SB. Plus, he is still young with plenty of upside at age 23. While I think Dan Uggla should have a little step backwards, I see Hanley still going forward, getting used to major league pitching, being more patient at the plate, and putting up numbers that get stronger as the season goes on.
Glen - Chipper Jones - Round 18
Another pick you look at and say, “how did he last that long?” Well, injuries have slowed him the past few years, that’s why. While there is some risk here that he will stay healthy and be able to play 140 games, his OPS was still 1.005 over 477 plate appearances in 2006. The projections for Jones are McCain-style conservative as they see him only playing 70 percent of the team’s games at third. But looking at the rate stats, his projected line looks like .292/.392/.532 for an OPS of .924. At 35, Chipper is still one of the best at getting on base and driving in runs so if extrapolate those rates over 600 PAs, you are looking at good numbers. Here is hoping he gets there — or maybe not for the rest of our sakes.
So those are my thoughts on the draft the day after. How about yours? What are your favorite picks? Your least favorite?
Round 1
1. Albert Pujols Miller’s Cub…
2. Ryan Howard I Hope I Win
3. David Ortiz Baker’s B**ch
4. Chase Utley Sabo’s Glasses
5. Álex Rodríguez The Presidents
6. Lance Berkman Man Tits
7. Alfonso Soriano Warstomp
8. Johan Santana JARheads
9. Carlos Beltrán No One’s B**ch
10. José Reyes Flaming Lemurs
Round 2
1. Carl Crawford Flaming Lemurs
2. Travis Hafner No One’s B**ch
3. Vladimir Guerrero JARheads
4. David Wright Warstomp
5. Miguel Cabrera Man Tits
6. Manny Ramírez The Presidents
7. Mark Teixeira Sabo’s Glasses
8. Carlos Lee Baker’s B**ch
9. Garrett Atkins I Hope I Win
10. Grady Sizemore Miller’s Cub…
Round 3
1. Matt Holliday Miller’s Cub…
2. Michael Young I Hope I Win
3. Andruw Jones Baker’s B**ch
4. Derek Jeter Sabo’s Glasses
5. Vernon Wells The Presidents
6. Jason Bay Man Tits
7. Jermaine Dye Warstomp
8. Ichiro Suzuki JARheads
9. Aramis Ramírez No One’s B**ch
10. Chris Carpenter Flaming Lemurs
Round 4
1. Derrek Lee Flaming Lemurs
2. Paul Konerko No One’s B**ch
3. Joe Mauer JARheads
4. Víctor Martínez Warstomp
5. Roy Oswalt Man Tits
6. Justin Morneau The Presidents
7. Bobby Abreu Sabo’s Glasses
8. Miguel Tejada Baker’s B**ch
9. Adam Dunn I Hope I Win
10. Jimmy Rollins Miller’s Cub…
Round 5
1. Troy Glaus Miller’s Cub…
2. Jeff Kent I Hope I Win
3. Carlos Delgado Baker’s B**ch
4. Joe Nathan Sabo’s Glasses
5. Hideki Matsui The Presidents
6. Carlos Zambrano Man Tits
7. Johnny Damon Warstomp
8. Gary Sheffield JARheads
9. Jake Peavy No One’s B**ch
10. Brandon Webb Flaming Lemurs
Round 6
1. Brian McCann Flaming Lemurs
2. Francisco Rodríguez No One’s B**ch
3. Carlos Guillén JARheads
4. Roy Halladay Warstomp
5. Mariano Rivera Man Tits
6. Robinson Canó The Presidents
7. Jim Thome Sabo’s Glasses
8. B.J. Ryan Baker’s B**ch
9. Delmon Young I Hope I Win
10. Michael Cuddyer Miller’s Cub…
Round 7
1. Dan Uggla Miller’s Cub…
2. Daisuke Matsuzaka I Hope I Win
3. John Lackey Baker’s B**ch
4. Nick Swisher Sabo’s Glasses
5. Jonathan Papelbon The Presidents
6. Huston Street Man Tits
7. Prince Fielder Warstomp
8. Marcus Giles JARheads
9. Raúl Ibañez No One’s B**ch
10. Jeremy Bonderman Flaming Lemurs
Round 8
1. Jeff Francoeur Flaming Lemurs
2. John Smoltz No One’s B**ch
3. Aubrey Huff JARheads
4. Billy Wagner Warstomp
5. Barry Bonds Man Tits
6. Ryan Zimmerman The Presidents
7. Scott Rolen Sabo’s Glasses
8. Aaron Harang Baker’s B**ch
9. Brett Myers I Hope I Win
10. Félix Hernández Miller’s Cub…
Round 9
1. Justin Verlander Miller’s Cub…
2. Bobby Jenks I Hope I Win
3. Torii Hunter Baker’s B**ch
4. Mike Piazza Sabo’s Glasses
5. Kenji Johjima The Presidents
6. Bill Hall Man Tits
7. Tadahito Iguchi Warstomp
8. Scot Shields JARheads
9. Jorge Posada No One’s B**ch
10. Alex Gordon Flaming Lemurs
Round 10
1. Brian Roberts Flaming Lemurs
2. Hanley Ramírez No One’s B**ch
3. Curt Schilling JARheads
4. C.C. Sabathia Warstomp
5. Todd Helton Man Tits
6. Ben Sheets The Presidents
7. J.D. Drew Sabo’s Glasses
8. Chris Young Baker’s B**ch
9. Barry Zito I Hope I Win
10. Iván Rodríguez Miller’s Cub…
Round 11
1. Josh Beckett Miller’s Cub…
2. Eric Chávez I Hope I Win
3. Takashi Saito Baker’s B**ch
4. Kevin Youkilis Sabo’s Glasses
5. Rafael Furcal The Presidents
6. Jason Schmidt Man Tits
7. Bronson Arroyo Warstomp
8. Mike Mussina JARheads
9. Gary Matthews Jr. No One’s B**ch
10. Jason Giambi Flaming Lemurs
Round 12
1. Rocco Baldelli Flaming Lemurs
2. Francisco Cordero No One’s B**ch
3. Adam Wainwright JARheads
4. Jacque Jones Warstomp
5. Pat Burrell Man Tits
6. Julio Lugo The Presidents
7. Trevor Hoffman Sabo’s Glasses
8. Matt Cain Baker’s B**ch
9. Álex Ríos I Hope I Win
10. J.J. Putz Miller’s Cub…
Round 13
1. Frank Thomas Miller’s Cub…
2. Ramón Hernández I Hope I Win
3. Chris Ray Baker’s B**ch
4. Nick Markakis Sabo’s Glasses
5. Dontrelle Willis The Presidents
6. Chien-Ming Wang Man Tits
7. Derek Lowe Warstomp
8. Richie Sexson JARheads
9. Rickie Weeks No One’s B**ch
10. Cole Hamels Flaming Lemurs
Round 14
1. Scott Kazmir Flaming Lemurs
2. Dan Haren No One’s B**ch
3. Brian Fuentes JARheads
4. Ray Durham Warstomp
5. Rich Harden Man Tits
6. Randy Johnson The Presidents
7. Joel Zumaya Sabo’s Glasses
8. Joe Crede Baker’s B**ch
9. Brad Lidge I Hope I Win
10. Freddy Sánchez Miller’s Cub…
Round 15
1. Ervin Santana Miller’s Cub…
2. Curtis Granderson I Hope I Win
3. Michael Barrett Baker’s B**ch
4. Freddy García Sabo’s Glasses
5. Andy Pettitte The Presidents
6. Jason Isringhausen Man Tits
7. Bob Wickman Warstomp
8. Adam LaRoche JARheads
9. José Contreras No One’s B**ch
10. Akinori Otsuka Flaming Lemurs
Round 16
1. Jonathan Broxton Flaming Lemurs
2. Chone Figgins No One’s B**ch
3. Chris Burke JARheads
4. Luke Scott Warstomp
5. Austin Kearns Man Tits
6. Erik Bedard The Presidents
7. Jon Garland Sabo’s Glasses
8. Rich Hill Baker’s B**ch
9. Kevin Millwood I Hope I Win
10. Dave Bush Miller’s Cub…
Round 17
1. Chris Capuano Miller’s Cub…
2. Hank Blalock I Hope I Win
3. Howie Kendrick Baker’s B**ch
4. Magglio Ordóñez Sabo’s Glasses
5. Bartolo Colón The Presidents
6. Ian Kinsler Man Tits
7. Ronnie Belliard Warstomp
8. B.J. Upton JARheads
9. Tom Glavine No One’s B**ch
10. Josh Willingham Flaming Lemurs
Round 18
1. Chipper Jones Flaming Lemurs
2. Jim Edmonds No One’s B**ch
3. Edwin Encarnación JARheads
4. Geoff Jenkins Warstomp
5. Mark Buehrle Man Tits
6. Eric Gagne The Presidents
7. Scott Linebrink Sabo’s Glasses
8. Mark Teahen Baker’s B**ch
9. Daniel Cabrera I Hope I Win
10. Russell Martin Miller’s Cub…
Round 19
1. Ty Wigginton Miller’s Cub…
2. Lyle Overbay I Hope I Win
3. Felipe López Baker’s B**ch
4. Scott Olsen Sabo’s Glasses
5. Chad Cordero The Presidents
6. Ken Griffey Jr. Man Tits
7. Jered Weaver Warstomp
8. Tom Gordon JARheads
9. Roger Clemens No One’s B**ch
10. Coco Crisp Flaming Lemurs
Round 20
1. Josh Johnson Flaming Lemurs
2. Chris Duncan No One’s B**ch
3. Eric Byrnes JARheads
4. Chad Tracy Warstomp
5. Zack Greinke Man Tits
6. Mark Prior The Presidents
7. John Patterson Sabo’s Glasses
8. Adrián González Baker’s B**ch
9. Jeremy Hermida I Hope I Win
10. Juan Rivera Miller’s Cub..
You’re crazy. Mark Prior in the 20th is the money pick. Last year I got the MVP in the 20th. This year, the CY AND MVP in the 20th. (Ignore the fact that he is in the process of being dropped for a waiver…)
I love Jason’s oick of Clemens. One more argument why we should have a NA spot. I mean come on… why can’t I have guys on my team that start the year off in the minors or retired??
Ryan, The only thing I don’t like about a Howie Kendrick is that he is a rookie.
You just don’t know what you are going to get.
I agree with the comment about Howie Kendrick. I really don’t know what I am getting, just hoping….but that is why I picked up Felipe Lopez late; some insurance in case he flames out.
Finally Jeremy is coming around! Another good case is Regan getting to keep Prior (comeback player of the year) despite him starting at AAA. I would appreciate my “value” picks more if pitchers had very much value in this league.
[...] the season, I guessed at what each team’s best value pick would be by the end of the season (which you can find here), so I will reference back to that, but this time be a little harsher by also pointing out where [...]