Baseball Notes

Lots of debates swirl every spring surrounding almost every team and what the batting lineup should be for the upcoming season. If only every team had a problem such as whether to bat their second baseman, who hit .330 last year, seventh or eighth (see: Cano, Robinson).

Well, the Astros are certainly a team that must think not only about who makes the team, but who plays and who bats where. Let’s look at last year’s lineup compared to this year’s (projected) lineup. Next to each is their 2006 OBP and SLG.

2006 2007

Willy Taveras .333/.338 Craig Biggio

Craig Biggio .306/.422 Chris Burke (.347/.418)

Lance Berkman .420/.621 Lance Berkman

Morgan Ensberg .396/ .463 Carlos Lee (.355/.540)

Luke Scott .426/.621 & Aubrey Huff .341/.478 Morgan Ensberg

Jason Lane .318/.392 Luke Scott

Adam Everett .290/.352 Adam Everett

Brad Ausmus .308/.285 Brad Ausmus

The Astros’ team OBP in 2006 was .332. This was “good” enough for 10^th in the NL. The team’s SLG was .409, coming in at a stellar 15^th in the NL. All of this adds up to being tied for 14^th in the NL in OPS. Tied with the Cubs, better than the Pirates. That’s it.

But, let’s let bygones be bygones. Last year was last year. Their offense stunk. That is all there is to it. So we’ll move forward. How, by golly, are the Astros going to create runs this year and what is the best way to do it?

Let’s look at the Astros projected lineup for 2007, now with their RC/27 for 2006; or more commonly called Runs Created per Game. Essentially, it means that a lineup consisting of nine of X player is expected to score Y runs (Bill James divised Runs Created as a way to measure team run production. RC/27 is essentially Runs Created divided by the number of outs made by the batter multiplied by 27). For example, Lance Berkman was the Astros top producer in RC/27 with 10.4, so you would expect a lineup of nine Lance Berkmans to score 10.4 runs a game.

Biggio - 4.2

Burke - 5.2

Berkman - 10.4

Lee - Mil - 7.4, Tex - 6.2; so we’ll split the difference and say 6.8

Ensberg - 6.8

Scott - 9.4

Everett - 3.6

Ausmus - 3.0

Some notes about this: Biggio, Taveras, and Everett were all in the bottom ten in the NL in RC/27 for qualified players. Ausmus would have ranked lower than all three of them if he would have had enough PA to qualify. Scott didn’t qualify, but his number would have placed him fourth overall (ahead of Ryan Howard). Ensberg didn’t qualify, but his number would have placed him 24^th overall; in-between Scott Rolen and Matt Holliday. This is particularly interesting to note when people talk about what a horrible year he had. Why is that, you say? Well here’s the answer:

At least on the Astros, there is a distinct correlation between 2006 OBP and RC/27:

Scott - .426 OBP/9.4 RC/27

Berkman - .420/10.4

Ensberg - .396/6.8

Lee - .355/6.8

Burke - .347/5.2

Ausmus - .308/3.0

Biggio - .306/4.2

Everett - .290/3.6

A few observations from this:

1. I think we all feel Scott will regress back to the mean somewhat this year. Anyone remember his first big league shot in the first two months of ’05? Truthfully, I expect him to be closer to the Aubrey Huff numbers of .341/.478. But at the same time, will Lee ramp up his production a little bit hitting at Minute Maid?

2. Even though Lee’s OBP is significantly less than Ensberg’s, the reason for the similar RC/27 is the incredible advantage Lee has in the power department. Plus, being healthy for a full season never hurts.

3. The same thing applies to Biggio and Ausmus. Even though Ausmus had the higher OBP, the fact that he couldn’t hit a home run in a t-ball field (remember the .285 SLG?) gives Biggio the significant edge in RC/27. **

4. Also, this shows that batting at the top of the lineup does not guarantee more RC/27. More ABs, and PAs do not necessarily move you up the list as Biggio’s example shows.

So what does all of this mean for the Houston batting order? Obviously, you don’t want to base your lineup in descending order of OBP or Runs Created, because then you take a number of RBI opportunities away from your guys with the highest SLG (although it may not be a bad idea for a team like the Dodgers who may not have a player hit 25 HR). If you take away the “per game” part of the formula and just look at total Runs Created for each Astro, you can see extrapolate out how many runs they created per plate appearance in 2006:

Berkman - 146 Runs Created/646 Plate Appearances = .22 runs created per PA

Scott - 49/249 = .20 (but about .13-.14 is average for OF and probably more accurate)

Lee - 113/690 = .16

Ensberg - 75/495 = .15

Burke - 51/413 = .12

Biggio - 64/607 = .11

Everett - 52/566 = .10

Ausmus - 37/502 = .07

Now, follow me here. Baseball Prospectus produces what they call PECOTA player projections every year about this time. These take into account a player’s age, what he has done in the past, where he plays, what have players similar to him done, etc. They are some of the most referenced tools when discussing how players will perform every year. If we use their projected plate appearances for 2007 and using the runs created per plate appearance from 2006, we can catch a glimpse of how many runs the projected Astros lineup might create this year (we’ll use .13 for Scott’s number to be fair).

Biggio - 335 projected PAs * .11 RC/PA = 37 runs

Burke - 487 * .12 = 58 runs

Berkman - 628 * .22 = 138 runs

Lee - 613 * .16 = 98 runs

Ensberg -482 * .15 = 72 runs

Scott - 543 * .13 = 71 runs

Everett - 485 * .10 = 49 runs

Ausmus - 211 * .07 = 15 runs

TOTAL: 538 runs

538 runs by the projected lineup, with the pitcher’s spot maybe adding one or two more throughout the season. Not bad, but I would like to propose a lineup that I believe would score more runs. Below you will find my lineup along with a small caveat. It’s widely known that for every spot in the lineup a batter moves up, he gains 27 PA per year. Conversely, you lose 27 for every spot you drop. So here is my lineup using the same projections adding and subtracting PAs when necessary.

Burke 514 (487 + 27) * .12 = 62 runs

Ensberg 563 * .15 = 84 runs

Berkman - 628 * .22 = 138 runs

Lee - 613 * .16 = 98 runs

Scott - 570 * .13 = 74 runs

Biggio - 200 * .11 = 22 runs

Everett - 485 * .10 = 49 runs

Ausmus - 211 * .07 = 15 runs

TOTAL: 542 runs

A difference of four runs more. Doesn’t sound like much does it? But what if we were able to bench one of the league’s five worst offensive players and play Bruntlett (and his .11 RC/PA) at shortstop? If we give him the same 485 PAs Everett is projected to have, you raise the runs total in the seventh spot to 54 and raisie your total to 547 runs. ****

Now, nine runs may not sound like a lot. But in the Runs Created formula, 10 additional runs equals one more win. “Big deal, one more win…” you say? Well what would have happened if the Astros had one more win in 2006? That’s right boys and girls, there would have been a tie for the division lead with Oswalt pithcing for the playoffs on full rest against the Cardinals. The same argument can be made for 2003 and 2001. The NL Central is a good place to be if there is an extra win to be had here or there.

Unfortunately, the Astros are just at a severe disadvantage with their seven and eight hitters, none of whom can reach even .310 in OBP (although Bruntlett was at .357 in ‘06). I do believe Everett is an ideal number 8 hitter and he makes up for his complete lack of offense with his glove. Ausmus, on the other hand, really has nothing going for him anymore, which forces Everett to bat 7th. “But,” you say, “he calls a good game and has a good rapport with the pitchers!” To me, that’s just another way to say he has nothing else to offer. Bring on Hector Gimenez!

What is your ideal lineup this year?

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**This is especially true when I looked up other players with a .306-.308 OBP and compared their RC/27. For example – Preston Wilson: 4.7, Freddie Bynum: 4.9, Termell Sledge: 3.2, Brad Wilkerson: 4.1. Most of these fall in line between the 5.2 and 4.2 of Burke and Biggio) ****Also not calculated here is how many more runs created Berkman and Lee could potentially have with batters with higher OBP and RC/PA hitting ahead of them.